000
FXUS65 KGGW 250259 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AND OUT OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST ZONES. THE RAPIDLY FADING VISUAL LOOP HAS
REVEALED UPSTREAM CU EVAPORATING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LOWERED
EVENING POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
REMOVE MOST MENTION FROM TEXT. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER AS A
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OVER THE NE MONTANA. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND
FROM TODAY/S RAIN COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL
LEAVE MENTION IN WX GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUFFICIENT CLEARING OF THIS MORNING/S CLOUD COVER MANAGED TO
DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. POTENT
VORT MAX NEAR THE CYPRESS HILLS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DRIVING A FEW STRONG STORMS THUS FAR. EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECAYING AS BOTH
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG MOSTLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS THAT SAW
RAIN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP A FIRM RETURN FLOW. THIS MOIST FETCH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR 90F
MOST PLACES. THE WARM PUSH IS ADVERTISED TO SHARPEN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE LOCATED JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE...SO
INHERITED AFTERNOON POPS WERE LEFT INTACT DESPITE MIXED CONVECTIVE
SIGNALS AMONG VARIOUS MODELS. MCZ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FOREAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY
WITH TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS SEEM TO BE THE BEST CHANCES.
SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HOT
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MONTANA.
THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND TEMPORARILY
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ONE
SUCH WAVE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
TIMING AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH THE PASSAGE.

HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOW LYING AIRPORT
LOCATIONS (I.E. WOLF POINT). ANY FOG CLEARS FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. JAMBA/GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion