Storm Prediction Center Forecast
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 6 08:10:01 UTC 2012.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 6 08:10:01 UTC 2012.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALSO
MOVING SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN
IL/IND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...LOW-AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE STRAITS OF
FL...THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TONIGHT...
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AMIDST A PREDOMINANTLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAINTENANCE
OF A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...FEATURING PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA...WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WHILE
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES...CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THUS LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM ATTAINING ANY APPRECIABLE
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...
AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FOR WHICH SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IF THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND ATTENDANT CYCLONIC
FLOW STRENGTHENS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY IMPACT THE FL KEYS AND
PARTS OF SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO
HIGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
...SRN TX TODAY/THIS EVENING...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD
DOME...AS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINOR MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
WARRANTED ATTM.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CYCLONE...LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT SUFFICIENTLY LOW
SUCH THAT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/06/2012
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP/COLD VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO CROSSING THE OH
VALLEY VICINITY. BENEATH A NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA UPPER
RIDGE...A LOW-LATITUDE/CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA MEXICO. THE PREVALENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM
POTENTIAL...WITH A VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONUS-WIDE.
ANY TSTM POTENTIAL...ALBEIT LIKELY TO BE A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...WILL BE RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH TX AND/OR SOUTH FL ON
WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER.. 02/06/2012
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
AMPLIFIED/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS/CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST.
...SOUTH FL...
WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED
FRONT...AT LEAST A FEW TSTMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL...AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SEVERE RISK.
...COASTAL CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WEAKENING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ATTENDANT TO
THE UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IN
INLAND AREAS...ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.
...FAR SOUTH TX TUESDAY NIGHT...
AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES...WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTH TX COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.
..GUYER.. 02/06/2012
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL BEGIN TO PHASE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...QUICKLY DEAMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A STAGNANT
UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LONGER
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SWWD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
LINGER OVER SRN CA...THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE MOISTURE OVER TIME...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS GIVEN THE
REDUCTION OF CHANNELING THROUGH THE COASTAL RANGES.
..HURLBUT.. 02/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. AN
AB/SK SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING SWD/EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE A SRN WAVE DRIFTS SWD
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST STATES...LIMITING FIRE POTENTIAL.
..HURLBUT.. 02/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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Additional Forecast Information
